Liquid Asphalt Binder Prices: Historical Index & Iran War Disruption Projections

Kansas DOT PG 64-22 index (per short ton) • Georgia DOT asphalt cement index • Supply disruption comparison • Price scenario estimates

March 2026 index (pre-war)
$496/ton
2022 peak (Russia-Ukraine)
$774/ton
2022 increase from baseline
+56%
Kansas PG 64-22 ($/short ton) Russia-Ukraine disruption Iran war (begins Feb. 28, 2026)

Source: Kansas Department of Transportation Asphalt Adjustment Price Index, PG 64-22, non-modified. ksdot.gov. March 2026 is the last published data point and does not yet reflect post-Feb. 28 market conditions. State DOT indexes typically lag spot market by 30–90 days during rapid price movements.

March 2026 index (pre-war)
$559/ton
2024 paving season peak
$610/ton
Trend since 2024 peak
-8.4%
Georgia AC index ($/short ton) Iran war (begins Feb. 28, 2026)

Source: Georgia Department of Transportation Asphalt Cement Price Index, monthly prevailing price. dot.ga.gov. Prices had softened from the 2024 peak before the Iran war disruption began. April 2026 index will be the first data point to potentially reflect post-war market conditions.

2022 supply disruption
~10%
2026 supply disruption
~20%
2026 swing capacity available
None
Kansas PG 64-22 verified index Russia-Ukraine war window Iran war window

Russia-Ukraine war began Feb. 24, 2022. Removed ~10% of global oil supply. Kansas binder peaked at $774/ton in Aug.–Sep. 2022, a 56.1% rise from the Jan. 2022 baseline of $496/ton. The 2026 Iran war removed ~20% of global supply (IEA) with no spare capacity available to offset it. Sources: Kansas DOT; Rapidan Energy Group; International Energy Agency.

These are editorial estimates, not market forecasts. Scenarios scale the verified 2022 price response proportionally against the current disruption magnitude. Actual prices depend on conflict duration, reserve deployment, and refinery behavior.
Conservative
Short conflict, Q2 resolution. Strategic reserves hold spike near 2022 peak levels.
$750–800
+51–61% from March 2026 baseline
Aggressive
Conflict beyond Q3. Refinery conversion away from asphalt fractions amplifies shortage.
$1,000–1,100
+100–121% from March 2026 baseline

Per short ton, PG 64-22 equivalent, unmodified. Polymer-modified binders (PMA) will track higher. Methodology: proportional scaling of verified Kansas DOT 2022 response (+56.1% for ~10% supply loss) against current ~20% supply disruption, adjusted for IEA strategic reserve deployment. March 2026 baseline: $496/ton (Kansas DOT index).

What a state DOT asphalt price index is

A monthly survey of actual supplier selling prices to state DOT contractors within a given state. Sets the baseline for price escalation clauses on eligible contracts. The Kansas and Georgia indexes used here are among the most reliable and consistently updated public data sources available for liquid asphalt pricing.

What a state DOT asphalt price index is not

It is not a spot market price and it is not real-time. It does not capture what an unprotected buyer pays today. During rapid market movements, the index typically lags the spot market by 30 to 90 days. The March 2026 figures shown here do not yet reflect post-Feb. 28 market conditions.

The protection gap

Contractors operating under multi-year DOT contracts with escalation clauses absorbed approximately 60% of crude’s 2022 price surge. Spot market buyers absorbed approximately 85%. That 25-point gap represents real protection for DOT-contract work — and real exposure for private and municipal work without escalation provisions. (Source: PW Consulting / Asphalt Binder Market, 2025)

About the projection scenarios

The conservative, moderate, and aggressive price scenarios on the Price Scenarios tab are the editors’ estimates. They are derived by proportional scaling of the verified 2022 Kansas DOT index response against the current disruption magnitude and are intended as a planning range, not a prediction. No proprietary commodity pricing data was used.